for provided plays. Returns the data with probabilities of winning the game. The following columns must be present: receive_h2_ko (1 if game is in 1st half and possession team will receive 2nd half kickoff, 0 otherwise), home_team, posteam, half_seconds_remaining, game_seconds_remaining, spread_line (how many points home team was favored by), down, ydstogo, yardline_100, posteam_timeouts_remaining, defteam_timeouts_remaining

calculate_win_probability(pbp_data)

Arguments

pbp_data

Play-by-play dataset to estimate win probability for.

Value

The original pbp_data with the following columns appended to it:

wp

win probability.

vegas_wp

win probability taking into account pre-game spread.

Details

Computes win probability for provided plays. Returns the data with spread and non-spread-adjusted win probabilities. The following columns must be present:

  • receive_2h_ko (1 if game is in 1st half and possession team will receive 2nd half kickoff, 0 otherwise)

  • score_differential

  • home_team

  • posteam

  • half_seconds_remaining

  • game_seconds_remaining

  • spread_line (how many points home team was favored by)

  • down

  • ydstogo

  • yardline_100

  • posteam_timeouts_remaining

  • defteam_timeouts_remaining

Examples

# \donttest{ library(dplyr) data <- tibble::tibble( "receive_2h_ko" = 0, "home_team" = "SEA", "posteam" = "SEA", "score_differential" = 0, "half_seconds_remaining" = 1800, "game_seconds_remaining" = 3600, "spread_line" = c(1, 3, 4, 7, 14), "down" = 1, "ydstogo" = 10, "yardline_100" = 75, "posteam_timeouts_remaining" = 3, "defteam_timeouts_remaining" = 3 ) nflfastR::calculate_win_probability(data) %>% dplyr::select(spread_line, wp, vegas_wp)
#> # A tibble: 5 × 3 #> spread_line wp vegas_wp #> <dbl> <dbl> <dbl> #> 1 1 0.546 0.515 #> 2 3 0.546 0.596 #> 3 4 0.546 0.638 #> 4 7 0.546 0.737 #> 5 14 0.546 0.866
# }